What the result means

A binary share that resolves correctly pays $1. If you buy as a taker, your economic entry cost is the executable price plus the platform fee. At 50¢, the current 7% crypto fee parameter adds 1.75¢ per share, so the hold-to-resolution win rate needed to break even becomes 51.75%, not 50%.

Use the executable price

Polymarket explains that the displayed probability is normally the order-book midpoint. A midpoint is not necessarily available to buy. Use the actual ask for a buy or the actual bid for a sale when evaluating whether an apparent edge survives execution.

Verify every market before trading

Polymarket says fees are determined per market at match time. The current documented crypto taker rate is 0.07 and the maker platform rate is zero, but the market's live fee schedule is authoritative. This calculator is dated and intentionally links to the official fee documentation →

Why PolyPilot checks the book

PolyPilot compares its probability estimate with the price and size that can actually fill, then applies fee, liquidity, spread and account controls. A theoretical signal is not enough if execution removes the edge.

FAQ

What is the Polymarket crypto taker-fee formula?

Polymarket currently documents the platform fee as shares multiplied by 0.07 multiplied by price multiplied by one minus price for fee-enabled crypto markets. Always verify the live market fee schedule before trading.

Why is break-even probability higher than the entry price?

A winning share pays $1 at resolution, but a taker pays the entry price plus the platform fee. The win rate needed to break even is therefore total entry cost divided by the number of shares, before any other costs or rebates.

Do makers pay the platform trading fee?

Polymarket currently documents the platform maker fee as zero. A limit order that crosses the book can execute as a taker, so maker treatment is not guaranteed merely because an order was submitted as a limit order.

Does this calculator predict whether a trade will win?

No. It only calculates cost and break-even math from the values entered. It does not estimate outcome probability, liquidity, slippage, fill probability or trading performance.